A downturn in Indian demand could hit global gold prices.
Prices of buffaloes and cattle have fallen by 20-30%.
Rural slowdown may delay growth in the economy.
Based on the estimate, a courier bringing in 1 kg of gold currently worth around $40,000 at world prices could earn $470 if not caught.
The country has produced a record harvest, but many farmers in the onion bowl of Maharashtra have lost a large share of their crop damaged in storage, adding to the country's inflation woes.
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Gold demand in India is expected to be robust in 2014, likely leading to a further jump in smuggling if curbs on bullion imports remain, the World Gold Council (WGC) said.
It will be the first to go, in what has become an overcrowded segment since India first allowed futures trading in commodities in 2003.
Congress party chief Sonia Gandhi has written to the government, to ask for a cut in the record import duty on gold and for other restrictions to be eased.
Official imports into India shrank almost 90 per cent in the six months to November
The government has asked jewellers to provide information on purchases of gold bars or jewellery worth more than Rs 500,000 by the end of this month, a move seen keeping a check on big transactions amid rising smuggling.
Non-resident Indians are bringing gold into the country by taking advantage of rules that allow each individual to carry 1 kg of the metal, helping traders cope with restrictions on imports during the peak wedding season.
India celebrated Dhanteras, the biggest gold buying festival, followed by Diwali, when scarcity of the yellow metal and high prices pushed consumers to buy silver and diamond jewellery.
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Imports of gold virtually stopped since July 22 after confusion on the new import rules.
Monsoon rains are vital for 55 per cent of the country's farmlands that lack irrigation facilities.
By tying gold imports directly to export volumes, India is effectively trying to cap how much bullion can be brought into the country, tightening supplies and driving up local prices.
India's gold imports could pick up in the next few months after slumping 81 percent in June as falling prices spur buying, a government source said, adding to New Delhi's anxiety over a record-low rupee and a wide current account deficit.
The RBI banned imports on a consignment basis, making it difficult for jewellers to source raw material.
The govt is increasing the duty to 15 per cent from the existing 10 per cent.
India's biggest jewellers' association has asked members to stop selling gold bars and coins.
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